Phoenix, Ariz. - November 2, 1999 - Kinetic Strategies Inc. has
developed the first market forecast for cable modem equipment
based on the Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification
(DOCSIS) standard.
According to the forthcoming Kinetic Strategies report "DOCSIS
Infrastructure Deployment Forecast: The North American Market for
Standards-Based Cable Modem Products and Services 1999-2003," sales
of DOCSIS cable modems and cable modem termination system (CMTS)
equipment will exceed $3 billion through 2003. Cable modem service
revenue is projected to reach $11.9 billion.
By enabling product cost reductions through economies of scale, retail
and PC OEM distribution partnerships, automated provisioning systems,
and the development of plug-and-play modems, the report concludes that
DOCSIS technology will significantly accelerate cable modem market
growth, resulting in 15.9 million installed cable modem customers in
North America by year-end 2003, up from a projected 1.8 million at the
end of 1999.
In the report, Kinetic Strategies projects MSOs will be offering DOCSIS-
based services to 17 percent of all cable homes passed in North America
at the end of 1999. DOCSIS network coverage is expected to climb to 83
percent by the end of 2003.
According to the report, 1999 will be the last year proprietary cable
modems outsell DOCSIS products. In the year 2000, DOCSIS unit shipments
are projected to top 2.3 million, equal to 79 percent of all cable modems
shipped in North America.
More than 30 vendors are now building DOCSIS cable modems, but five
companies controlled the market in the first half of 1999: 3Com, General
Instrument, Samsung, Thomson Consumer Electronics, and Toshiba.
Together, these vendors accounted for more than 90 percent of all North
American DOCSIS cable modem shipments in the first and second quarter.
Kinetic Strategies developed business models for the report comparing the
deployment of high-speed Internet services using proprietary and DOCSIS
cable modem equipment. The analysis found that the DOCSIS-based
deployment yields significantly higher free cash flow and offered a far
more attractive return on investment, providing a strong incentive for
cable operators to deploy the technology.
The Kinetic Strategies "DOCSIS Infrastructure Deployment Forecast" will
be released in mid November. Additional information and pricing details
are available at http://www.kineticstrategies.com/docsis/.
Phoenix-based Kinetic Strategies is a leading
broadband research firm and publisher of Cable Datacom News , a top news service for the cable
Internet industry, and CABLE-MODEM.NET.
